Dynamic Bayesian networks for reliability evaluation of subsea wellhead connector during service life based on Monte Carlo method

The subsea wellhead connector is a critical connection component between subsea Christmas tree and subsea wellhead for preventing the leakage of oil and gas in the subsea production system. Excited by cyclical loadings due to environmental forces and the other support forces, the subsea wellhead connector is prone to the failure, which could lead to the loss of subsea tree or wellhead integrity and even catastrophic accidents. With the Monte Carlo simulation method, this paper presents a reliability analysis approach based on dynamic Bayesian Networks, aiming to assess the failure probability of the subsea wellhead connector during service life. Take the driving ring component of the subsea wellhead connector as an example to demonstrate the reasonability of the proposed model. The generation data is processed by the transform between the numerical value and the state variable. Based on the stress-strength interference theory, the structure reliability of the driving ring with 96.26% is achieved by the proposed model with the consideration the aging of the material strength and the most influential factors are figured out. Meanwhile, the corresponding control measures are proposed effectively reduce the failure risk of the subsea wellhead connector during service life.     

复杂气井套管力学分析与可靠度评价

为建立考虑地层和套管参数随机性的套管可靠度评价理论方法，以便得到复杂井况下套管传统设计安全系数与可靠指标之间的关系，提出了非均匀地应力和内压联合作用下，沿套管最大外挤力方向管壁任意位置发生屈服失效时外壁等效均匀外挤力的计算方法；建立了套管抗挤和抗内压三轴强度计算公式以及有效内压计算方法；根据套管载荷和强度影响因素统计参数以及评价过程中参数测试标准值，利用蒙特卡洛法（MC）建立了完整的套管可靠度计算和评价方法；通过实例对传统安全系数与可靠指标的对应关系进行了研究。研究结果表明:指定条件下，套管安全系数与可靠指标之间存在对应关系；利用建立的方法编制计算程序可以为传统设计法中安全系数代表的安全程度进行量化；可靠度评价方法能够为安全系数的选取提供指导。     

煤矿火灾烟气流动传播过程仿真研究

煤矿发生火灾后会生成大量有毒气体并产生火风压,烟气在火灾动力的影响下出现状态紊乱,研究煤矿火灾烟气流动传播过程对控制火情有着重要意义。基于国内外研究现状,对燃烧及风流特点进行分析,建立了煤矿火灾烟气流动数学模型,并利用CFD软件进行仿真。研究表明:无通风工况下的烟气为对称流动;随着风速增加,出口处温度降低,烟气向风流入口处的流速减小。     

p,p'-DDE与雄激素受体突变体H874Y及T877A激动性作用机制的理论研究

1,1-二氯-2,2-双(对氯苯基)乙烯(p,p'-DDE)是一种已知的雄激素受体(androgen receptor,AR)拮抗剂。有趣的是,已有研究证实p,p'-DDE同时可经由作用于AR的2种天然突变体H874Y和T877A产生拟雄激素效应,但其相互作用的分子机制尚不清晰。本研究联用分子动力学模拟与MM-GBSA方法,以内源性激素二氢睾酮(DHT)作为对照,对p,p'-DDE与2种突变体的相互作用分子机制进行了研究。模拟结果指出范德华相互作用是维持p,p'-DDE与AR突变体结合的主要驱动力,而溶剂化作用的差异是导致p,p'-DDE与H874Y具有较高结合活性的主要原因,H874Y结合口袋与p,p'-DDE的结构匹配度优于与T877A。与内源性配体二氢睾酮相比较,范德华作用与静电相互作用的差异是造成p,p'-DDE比DHT结合活性低的主要原因,p,p'-DDE与AR突变体之间缺乏氢键的稳定。MM-GBSA的结果确定p,p'-DDE与突变体结合过程的关键氨基酸以疏水性残基为主,其中L704、M745、L873尤为重要。计算获得的p,p'-DDE对H874Y及T877A相互作用分子机制有助于理解该污染物在不同人群中内分泌干扰效应的差异。     

雷达关键部件对西北地区典型环境适应性的综合仿真研究

长期工作在西北地区大温差、多风砂和强紫外线等恶劣复杂环境下的雷达装备表面极易出现表面磨蚀或损坏。建立了雷达对西北地区综合环境适应性的仿真分析方法,以计算流体动力学(CFD)软件FLUENT为平台,对雷达典型部件在大温差、多风砂和强紫外线环境中的表面状态进行仿真模拟。仿真结果与雷达装备实际情况较为吻合,为进一步深入研究相关物理机理以及设计防护措施提供了理论依据。     

Evaluating the impact of uncertainty and variability on the value chain optimization of a forest biomass power plant using Monte Carlo Simulation

Mathematical programming models have been used to optimize the design and management of forest bioenergy supply chains. A deterministic mathematical model is beneficial for making optimum decisions; however, its applicability to real-world problems may be limited because it does not capture all the complexities, including uncertainties in the parameters, in the supply chain. In this paper, a combination of Monte Carlo Simulation and optimization model is used to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in biomass quality, availability and cost, and electricity prices on the supply chain of a forest biomass power plant. The optimization model is a deterministic mixed integer non-linear model with monthly time steps over a 1-year planning horizon. Variability in biomass quality, i.e. moisture content (MC) and higher heating value (HHV), based on the historical data of a real case study is studied in detail and fitted probability distributions are used in the model, while for electricity prices different scenarios are considered. The results show that the impact of variability in the MC on profit is higher than that of uncertainty in HHV. It is observed that the annual profit ranges between $13.3 million and $17.9 million in the presence of all possible uncertainties while its average is $15.5 million. Uncertainty in biomass availability and cost and electricity price results in the risks of having annual profit of less than $14 million and low monthly storage levels.     

Comparative study on performances of a heat-pipe PV/T system and a heat-pipe solar water heating system

The heat-pipe solar water heating (HP-SWH) system and the heat-pipe photovoltaic/thermal (HP-PV/T) system are two practical solar systems, both of which use heat pipes to transfer heat. By selecting appropriate working fluid of the heat-pipes, these systems can be used in the cold region without being frozen. However, performances of these two solar systems are different because the HP-PV/T system can simultaneously provide electricity and heat, whereas the HP-SWH system provides heat only. In order to understand these two systems, this work presents a mathematical model for each system to study their one-day and annual performances. One-day simulation results showed that the HP-SWH system obtained more thermal energy and total energy than the HP-PV/T system while the HP-PV/T system achieved higher exergy efficiency than the HP-SWH system. Annual simulation results indicated that the HP-SWH system can heat the water to the available temperature (45°C) solely by solar energy for more than 121 days per year in typical climate regions of China, Hong Kong, Lhasa, and Beijing, while the HP-PV/T system can only work for not more than 102 days. The HP-PV/T system, however, can provide an additional electricity output of 73.019 kWh/m², 129.472 kWh/m², and 90.309 kWh/m² per unit collector area in the three regions, respectively.     

潜流湿地对典型选控性有机污染物去除的预测

建立潜流湿地有机污染物迁移转化模型,采用多孔介质模型描述潜流湿地的水力特性,并引入Monod方程相耦合,实现对湿地系统内部流场及水质浓度的同时模拟。通过实验,校核模型参数,并验证模型。结果表明,该模型能较好模拟潜流湿地中有机污染物的去除效果;计算条件下,在不同基质填料的潜流湿地中都会出现滞水区和快速通道,影响水力效率与污染物去除效果;预测了不同填料系统中7种典型选控性有机污染物的去除效果,其处理效率:苯胺苯酚二甲苯甲苯苯硝基苯氯苯,可通过优选填料提高吸附量和延长停留时间来提高选控性有机物的处理效果。     

非金属管道微小泄漏动力学数值模拟和试验对比

为了探索非金属输送管道泄漏规律,从数值模拟和试验两个角度,对液体PE管道发生泄漏前后管道内流体与泄漏口的流动状态进行了对比分析,为判定管道泄漏提供了依据。运用FLUENT软件针对PE液体管道泄漏,在不同孔径、不同压力下,构建管道泄漏模型分别进行仿真,分析不同泄漏情景下压力梯度的分布规律。同时在近似相同条件下进行PE管道两点泄漏模拟试验。结果显示:数值模拟与试验结果基本一致,泄漏孔处压力、流速均与管内初始压力成正相关;初始压力和孔径的增大,会导致管内压力下降速度上升,但最终会趋于稳定值。     

基于人工神经网络的气体泄爆最大超压预测研究

为解决传统经验公式在预测气体泄爆中最大超压出现时的较大偏差或过于保守的问题，提出使用人工神经网络预测气体泄爆最大超压。基于124组实验数据，采用BP与RBF神经网络，通过优化算法计算与迭代循环对泄爆样本中的影响因素进行降维与选择，并确定2类神经网络本身在学习与计算气体泄爆样本时的相关参数。结果表明:PCA（主成分分析法）在当前样本条件下的降维效果较差，而通过迭代对比确认气体泄爆样本中的5类特征全部保留时神经网络的训练模拟效果最好；通过对124组实验数据进行随机挑选训练集与测试集的训练模拟结果发现，神经网络对气体泄爆中最大超压的预测效果较好；通过对比Molkov提出的和经Fakandu等改进的NFPA 68经验公式以及2类神经网络的预测结果表明，神经网络相比于传统气体泄爆经验公式具有明显优势。